How It Works
Think you know when the subway will break? Prove it.
Prediction Markets
MTA Bets creates daily markets based on real NYC subway data. Each market asks a simple yes/no question, like "Will the L train have a delay today?"
You buy shares of YES or NO based on what you think will happen. Prices move between 1c and 99c based on supply and demand (technically, a logarithmic market scoring rule, but we all took enough math in school).
Example:
- "Will the A/C/E have a morning rush delay?" is trading at 65c YES
- You think it will happen, so you buy 100 YES shares for 65 coins
- If YES wins: your shares pay out 100 coins (1 coin per share). Profit: 35 coins
- If NO wins: your shares are worth nothing. Loss: 65 coins. Just like a MetroCard that didn't swipe.
Play Money
MTA Bets uses play money. No real dollars involved. Think of coins as your reputation score for subway chaos forecasting.
1,000 coins
Everyone starts here. Spend wisely. Or don't. We're not the MTA Board.
50 coins/day
Log in daily to claim. Here's 50 coins. You'll need them.
Automatic Resolution
Markets resolve automatically using real MTA data. We poll the MTA's official GTFS-RT feed every 2 minutes for service alerts, delays, and disruptions.
No human judges. No disputes. No "but my train was DEFINITELY late." The algorithm decides, and unlike the subway, it's actually consistent.
Market types:
- DDaily Line Markets
"Will the L train have a delay today?" Resolves at end of service day.
- RRush Hour Markets
"A/C/E disruption during morning rush?" Resolves after the rush window closes.
- MMeta Markets
"3+ lines delayed today?" Cross-line aggregate predictions.
- PPolicy Markets
"Will MTA announce a fare increase this quarter?" Longer-dated, curated markets.
FAQ
Is this real money?
No. MTA Bets uses play money (coins). No real dollars, no crypto, no CFTC concerns. Just bragging rights and the satisfaction of being right about delays.
How are initial prices set?
We use historical MTA delay data to seed the initial probability. If the L train has been delayed 62% of days historically, that market opens around 62%. Then the market moves as people trade.
What counts as a 'delay'?
Any service alert from the MTA's GTFS-RT feed classified as a delay, reroute, suspension, or significant service change affecting the specified line(s).
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes! You can sell your shares at the current market price anytime before the market closes. Prices change based on trading activity.
How does the pricing work?
We use LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule), the same algorithm used by academic prediction markets. Prices always add up to $1 (YES + NO = 100c). The more people buy YES, the higher the YES price goes.
What happens if I run out of coins?
You get 50 free coins every day. Log in, click claim, and you're back in the game. Think of it as your daily MetroCard refill.
Is the MTA involved?
No. We just use their public data feed. They have enough problems to deal with.